"When The Backbone Of A Country Starts Thinking That Laws And Rules Are Not Worth Following, It's Just A Hop, Skip And A Jump To Anarchy"

Doom.

This isn't so much of a matter of if but when in our country. 

TV has given us the illusion that anarchy is people rioting in the streets, smashing car windows and looting every store in sight. But there’s also the polite, quiet, far deadlier anarchy of the core citizenry—the upright citizenry—throwing in the towel and deciding it’s just not worth it anymore.

If a big enough proportion of the populace—not even a majority, just a largish chunk—decides that it’s just not worth following the rules anymore, then that society’s days are numbered: Not even a police-state with an armed Marine at every corner with Shoot-to-Kill orders can stop such middle-class anarchy.

Brian and Ilsa are such anarchists—grey-haired, well-dressed, golf-loving, well-to-do, exceedingly polite anarchists: But anarchists nevertheless. They are not important, or powerful, or influential: They are average—that’s why they’re so deadly: Their numbers are millions. And they are slowly, painfully coming to the conclusion that it’s just not worth it anymore.

Be sure to read the whole thing.

Via Insty who has some thoughts of his own. 

Not Gone, Not Forgotten

But I did have my power knocked out for the better part of a week thanks to Irene. So my carbon footprint was considerably smaller. No electricity to make toast or coffee with. It was like camping at home.

There were a few things I learned from Irene however:

• Cowboy Coffee can remove chrome off of a trailer hitch. 
• Going green sucked. 
• The only McDonald's that was open experienced an economic boom to the detriment of the closed Burger King, Starbucks, Panera and a few other breakfast places.

But there wasn't any real economic growth in my area from Irene. Just activity.

One area mom told me that she has overblown her budget for food by eating out because it's (a:) easier to do for dinner rather than the hassell of cooking without electricity and the clean up after and (b:) she had to throw out a bunch of food in the fridge because it got too warm and became unsafe to eat.

One more example for the Broken Window Fallacy.

[Had this in the queue but never published it after Hurricane Irene. Apologies for it being a bit dated.]

Nobel Prize Winner In Economics Equates Today's Earthquake To The Broken Window Fallacy. Updated: Could It Be A Parody?

What would you expect from Paul Krugman?

People on twitter might be joking, but in all seriousness, we would see a bigger boost in spending and hence economic growth if the earthquake had done more damage.

As one of the comments at the link puts it, "Japan's economy should be skyrocketing, then."

Why stop there? Get some flash "Economic Recovery" mobs ready to go smash some windows.

You know who benefits from this? The hometowns of whoever the NBA Championship, World Series and the Superbowl. Riots in the streets, turning cars over and burning couches.

This is the sort of economic recovery Detroit, Michigan revels in.

Kinda Related: You know who can use a good earthquake riht about now? Illinois.

Illinois lost more jobs during the month of July than any other state in the nation, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. After losing 7,200 jobs in June, Illinois lost an additional 24,900 non-farm payroll jobs in July. The report also said Illinois’s unemployment rate climbed to 9.5 percent. This marks the third consecutive month of increases in the unemployment rate.

Update: Allahpundit at Hot Air has some doubts if it's really Krugman or some parody.

Is it real or just a goof? Kevin Williamson isn’t sure and neither am I, but given that this is the same guy who fantasized recently about the Keynesian awesomeness of an alien invasion, it’s at least a toss-up. All day long I’ve felt relieved that the quake caused only very minor damage, but now suddenly I’m bummed that the Brooklyn Bridge didn’t fall into the river. Maybe we can get DHS or the NYPD to blow it up? That’s a few thousand jobs right there.

Here's the deal. As with the space aliens comment, Krugman has said some stupid things in the past. The line between what's parody and what he really has said tends to get blurry.

Update II: It's fake but accurate:

[H]ere’s the man himself weighing in. It wasn’t his Google+ page. Duly noted, and I apologize for the error. But I hope he addresses the argument in the fake tweet on his blog. If World War II ended the Great Depression, why is it outrageous to think a Keynesian might see an economic boon to a natural calamity?

What a bummer.

At Last: The Video Montage Of Each One Of Obama's Pivot's On Jobs

Where he keeps reaffirming his laser like focus on jobs, jobs, jobs until something shiny comes along.

From the Puff Ho of all places (link to Puff Ho, fair warning but worth a quick read).



You would think that once you lost the Huff Po, you lost the liberal establishment. Not so. Some of the comments are saying that Puff Ho has put on a mustache and gone the way of Fox News.

Some people still insist on tracing the woodgrain.*

Thanks to Viv.

*Exit question: Is Ender's Game too obscure for a sci-fi book regarding the woodgrain reference? It's one of the few references in literature where it illustrates the point I want to make.

US Consumer Confidence Low

Special Guest Posting by Captain Obvious:

Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the stock market will prompt households to retrench.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

The biggest one-week slump in stocks since 2008 and the threat of default on the nation’s debt may have exacerbated consumers’ concerns as unemployment hovers above 9 percent and companies are hesitant to hire. Rising pessimism poses a risk household spending will cool further, hindering a recovery that Federal Reserve policy makers said this week was already advancing “considerably slower” than projected.

“The mood is very depressed,” said Chris Christopher, an economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Consumers are very fatigued and very uncertain. In the short term, people are going to pull back on spending.”

Could consumer confidence be low because of policies like this?

The economic stimulus, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, provided $2.4 billion in grants to advanced vehicle batteries technology. From that amount, $300 million in grants went to Johnson Controls to manufacture batteries.

According to the White House, thus far the firm has added 150 jobs because of the grant. That means the government spent about $2 million per job, but only if no more jobs are added.

Breaking: S & P To Downgrade US

From Jake Tapper:

A government official tells ABC News that the federal government is expecting and preparing for bond rating agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the rating of US debt from its current AAA value.

Officials reasons given will be the political confusion surrounding the process of raising the debt ceiling, and lack of confidence that the political system will be able to agree to more deficit reduction. A source says Republicans saying that they refuse to accept any tax increases as part of a larger deal will be part of the reason cited. [Emphasis mine]

No, because a bipartisan budget was passed which was crap. Not because the Republicans (at least the Tea Party faction) wanted real cuts in spending. Not projected cuts in future spending 10 years down the road where no other Congress is bound to make those cuts.

This at CNBC:

U.S. government officials are bracing for the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the country’s credit as early as this evening, according to someone familiar with the matter.

Throughout Friday, markets were rife with speculation that S&P, which has had a negative outlook on the U.S. since April 18, would downgrade the country’s credit from its current triple-A level.

On July 14, S&P put the government on a credit watch with negative implications, meaning there was at least a one in two chance the U.S.’s long-term debt would be downgraded within 90 days.

Thanks to Jason for the last link.

Ronnie Bryant Goes Galt

I can't add anything more to this:

My name’s Ronnie Bryant, and I’m a mine operator. I’ve been issued a [state] permit in the recent past for [waste water] discharge, and after standing in this room today listening to the comments being made by the people…. [pause] Nearly every day without fail — I have a different perspective — men stream to these [mining] operations looking for work in Walker County. They can’t pay their mortgage. They can’t pay their car note. They can’t feed their families. They don’t have health insurance. And as I stand here today, I just … you know … what’s the use? I got a permit to open up an underground coal mine that would employ probably 125 people. They’d be paid wages from $50,000 to $150,000 a year. We would consume probably $50 million to $60 million in consumables a year, putting more men to work. And my only idea today is to go home. What’s the use? I don’t know. I mean, I see these guys — I see them with tears in their eyes — looking for work. And if there’s so much opposition to these guys making a living, I feel like there’s no need in me putting out the effort to provide work for them. So as I stood against the wall here today, basically what I’ve decided is not to open the mine. I’m just quitting. Thank you.

Thanks to Truman.

A Diller, A Dollar, A Ten O'Clock Scholar

Ace had this up yesterday but it was buried due to all the Osama Bin Laden posts. It's worth bringing up again:

There’s a growing amount of evidence that the spending multiplier is much smaller than stimulus advocates have argued. As a reminder, the multiplier effect or spending multiplier refers to the idea that a certain amount of government spending leads to a certain amount of change in the activity of the larger economy. In other words, a change in the total demand for goods and services (what economists term aggregate demand) causes a change in total output for the economy that is a multiple of the initial change. For example, if the government spends one dollar and, as a result of this spending, the economy (as expressed by the gross domestic product, or GDP) grows by $2, the spending multiplier is 2. If the economy grows by $1.50, the spending multiplier is 1.5. However, if the economy only grows by 50 cents (a loss from the original $1 spent), the spending multiplier is 0.5. And if the multiplier is negative, it means that $1 in government spending shrinks the economy.

As I understand it, the Multiplier effect is basically the craftsman fashions a walking cane out of fallen lumber in the forest. The dollar he makes out of selling those canes goes to pay the baker. The baker then pays the butcher and so on. The craftsman created value to the local economy in the form of goods (the canes).

Of course, like all things, the multiplier effect comes to an end. Taxes take away from that circulating dollar bit by bit and eventually, someone will end up saving it or using it to pay off a bill. I should note by now that I'm completely winging it here and if I'm completely off base, I'm hoping someone would say so in a comment.

Being how it was the government supplying the cash for the 'stimulus', certain economists whose name sounds like Kaul Prugman where arguing that there would be a multiplier effect of about 1.4. For ever dollar of the stimulus that was spent, it would generate $1.40 in added value. But that's completely disregarding what needs to happen in order for the government obtain the funds for the stimulus.

There are a few ways for the federal government to get their hands on the cash to do a stimulus.

Borrowing.

Sign Uncle Sam's name to a note and borrow the money from a bank or other lender. In that case, the multiplier effect would really need to outpace the interest rate in order for it to break even.

Also, in the case of borrowing money, it's a finite object. And if customer A (the federal government) borrows all that the back can loan, where does that leave customer B (small business owner looking to expand)?

Should I point out that it's an especially bad idea to borrow even more when heavily in debt? It's compounding stupidity upon stupidity.

And what would be the payment plan? How would the bank want to get back their money and interest?

Printing.

Not to go all Ayn Rand about how money is a merely a tool, an unspoken social contract between men when exchanging goods and services but it is just that. It's a tool used to measure the value of an object. When printed money is dumped straight into the cash flow of the economy of a nation, the value of the money drops while the value of the goods or services stays the same. It may look like the goods and services are going higher-- and from the relative standpoint from the dollar's viewpoint, it is-- but the buying power from the money goes down. Keep in mind that value doesn't mean the same as cost for this example.

To cart out the craftsman again. He takes time and energy to make the walking sticks to sell. And is rewarded monetarily for his effort. If walking sticks magically appeared on every street corner, it wouldn't be worth his time and effort to make anymore. And the value for the walking sticks goes down because there is a flood of them on the market. Same thing with printing money.

Taxation.

Yes, take away portions of people's paychecks in order to give it back to them. Wait, let me refine that. Take away large portions of the wealthier, producing people's paychecks in order to give a portion of that back to everyone else. Then this begs the question, if government spending supposedly has a multiplier effect of 1.4%, then what is the multiplier effect of the private consumer?

Again, most of this is from what I've been reading about how the economy works these past few years. Much of this is dramatically over simplified, I'll cop to that.

I did figured out the concept of the multiplier but never knew the name of it until a few months ago. I wish I would have tackled an economics class back in college back in the day. Mainly, I studied electronics. Anyhoo. . .

The stimulus should have been regarded a failure. It was claimed by many in the Congress and the President that it was needed to be passed right away! In order to keep the unemployment below 8%. By that measure alone, it was a miserable failure.

Please don't ask me what a 'Diller' is. I only remember it from the opening nursery rhyme. I was taking a cue from Bob Belvedere and some of the names he gives his posts. He's really quite clever about some of them.

Video: State Budget Battle Showdowns

From The Heritage Foundation and Reason TV.

Wisconsin. Ohio. Michigan. New Jersey. New York. Budget-battle showdowns are coming soon to a statehouse near you.

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) has provoked the ire of labor union leaders in Wisconsin, but he’s not alone. Governors across America are confronting budget shortfalls — and looking to public employees to help make up the difference.

Walker’s budget repair bill asks government workers to make a 5.8% pension contribution (about the national average) and 12.6% health insurance contribution (about half the national average). In New Jersey, Republican Gov. Chris Christie proposed that public employees pick up 30 percent of their health care premiums. And in neighboring New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, asked public employees to pay $500 million toward benefits they’re currently receiving for free.

It’s a scenario all too common after years of out-of-control government spending.

Video: The Debt Limit Made Simple

It's a little over five minutes in length but simplifies how the Debt Limit works.



The video is a little over a year old but still timely.

Cross posted at The Daley Gator and Disrupt The Narrative.

Video: The Next Hot, New Reality Show Is Coming Sooner Than You Think

The Real Housewives of Tent City, USA.



Thanks to Sara.

The Parable Of The Shot TV

Did you know that if you voted for Bristol Palin on Dancing With the Stars, you helped to improve the economy?

It's true.

As she progressed week after week in the contest, people became further and further incensed at her. Enough to where one Steven Cowan picked up his gun and shot his TV.

You might think that he might be a little off his rocker. He may have misread his medication as "6 pills every 2 hours" instead of the other way around. He may have thought that it would have impressed Brook Burke. Who knows?

But here's what I think happened. He was looking to stimulate the economy.

Really.

He went Elvis on the TV and ended up in a 15 hour stand off with the police. The police do not work for free. They'll be getting extra pay in their checks for the overtime and hazard duty*. Then there is the cost for the courts and lawyers. Those attorneys need someway to pay for the big ad on the back of the phone book.

Not to mention that Cowan's wife will buy a new TV. She'll have more disposable income as well because she won't be supporting his TV viewing habits. . . His diet of Natty Light. . . His PPV bill. . . This is the proverbial finding a dollar in the gutter for her. Maybe she can now afford a divorce attorney?

All because you voted for Bristol, the economy was stimulated.

With any luck, she will win. That means more TVs will be shot and more stimulus for the economy.

Or something.

*Not sure if police get hazard pay or not. But it sounded good for the posting so I left it in.

Regardless Of Who Is In Charge. . .

This is a mantra to live by when reading any report about the economy released by the government: They lie to you because they think you are stupid.

He's right about the price of yogurt at Wal-Mart. I was there the other night grocery shopping and it has gone up eight cents. Might not seem a lot but when you consider the sheer volume that Wal-Mart sells every day, it adds up.

Exit question: Which would be preferable? The zombie apocalypse or the US turning into Wiemar Germany?

60 Minutes, 99er's & What Employment Is Really At.

This was on 60 Minutes last night. Basically, unemployment is really bad*. And really, really high.

And much higher than what is being reported. And all of it started when the Democrats took control of the purse strings in Congress after the 06 election.



*Line stolen from The Right Scoop's title.

Foreclosures Hit Close To Home

Via The Other McCain.

Stogie at Saberpoint is going through a tough patch.

Our savings kept us afloat for a year. When it was gone, I borrowed the equity out of my life insurance. That's gone too. We were hoping to ride out this recession, to survive until it was over. However, it is the longest lasting and deepest recession I have ever seen. And I remember when Eisenhower was president, to give you some perspective. (Okay, okay, I actually remember when Truman was president, but I was VERY young. Practically a fetus, mind you.)

It's just a matter of weeks before I lose my home. I never, ever thought I'd be in such a predicament. This happened to other people, sure, but not to me. I am a college graduate and a CPA. Accountants were supposed to be immune from unemployment. Not any more. The fact that I am well past 50 doesn't help. Seniors and new grads are the hardest hit.

Be sure to read the entire thing.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie Slicing Like A Hammer

More info and background at Hot Air and Ace.

The Problem With Safety Nets

This helps define the problem with cushy unemployment benefits and multiple extensions. Why would someone jeopardize their guaranteed check from Uncle Gubmint than go out and work at a temp job. When they run out of extensions then it's time to go looking for a job, not beforehand.

Landscapers are having trouble filing temporary jobs in Michigan-- who has the lowest unemployment in the US-- because people don't want to give up their unemployment checks.

Landscape workers can earn about $12 per hour in Michigan and would make $480 per week before taxes working full-time, or about $350 per week after taxes. In addition, full-time landscape workers would face transportation costs and other work-related expenses. But collecting unemployment benefits and working zero hours per week, many of those unemployed workers can receive $255 per week tax-free for almost two years, which is only $95 less per week than if they worked full-time. For some workers who are getting the maximum of $387 per week in jobless benefits, they can receive even more from collecting benefits than they would get paid going back to work full-time.

It's policies like this that help kill the entrepreneurial spirit of a nation.

Reason TV Calls BS On GM

Did GM really pay back the Government loan in full and ahead of schedule? Short answer, yes. Long answer, with someone else's money.



In other news, I made a buck by taking a dollar out of my right pocket and putting it in my left.

The Economy Was Abhorrent While The SEC Abused Bit Torrent

You know what this calls for. Even more layers of government regulation to watch the wankers watchers*.

The country's top financial watchdogs turned out to be horndogs who spent hours gawking at porn Web sites as the economy teetered on the brink, according to a memo released Thursday night.

The shocking findings include Securities and Exchange Commission senior staffers using government computers to browse for booty and an accountant who tried to access the raunchy sites 16,000 times in one month.

Their titillating pastime was discovered during 33 probes of employees looking at explicit images in the past five years, said the memo obtained by The Associated Press.

More here:

- A senior attorney at the SEC's Washington headquarters spent up to eight hours a day looking at and downloading pornography. When he ran out of hard drive space, he burned the files to CDs or DVDs, which he kept in boxes around his office. He agreed to resign, an earlier watchdog report said.

- An accountant was blocked more than 16,000 times in a month from visiting websites classified as "Sex" or "Pornography." Yet he still managed to amass a collection of "very graphic" material on his hard drive by using Google images to bypass the SEC's internal filter, according to an earlier report from the inspector general. The accountant refused to testify in his defense, and received a 14-day suspension.

- Seventeen of the employees were "at a senior level," earning salaries of up to $222,418.

- The number of cases jumped from two in 2007 to 16 in 2008. The cracks in the financial system emerged in mid-2007 and spread into full-blown panic by the fall of 2008.

*The joke I stole from Robert Stacy.

So They Were Off By Eighty Years Or So

Or prophetic.