Place Your Bets - 2012 GOP Candidates

Charles Krauthammer is my favorite political analyst and columnist currently. In his column today, he is giving odds for the Republican nominees in 2012. Here is a summary of the likely candidates:

1. Mitt Romney: 5-1


2. Tim Pawlenty: 5-1


3. Mitch Daniels: 6-1


4. Haley Barbour: 7-1


5. Newt Gingrich: 12-1


6. Michelle Bachmann: 20-1


7. Donald Trump: Lions have a better chance at winning the Super Bowl

He mentions but doesn't give odds for those he believes aren't running - Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.

He does discuss the very deep 2016 bench. They are Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley. Personally, I would add Allen West and Bob McDonnell to his list.

So based on this list of Krauthammer's odds and my previous post of electoral college strategy, upon whom are you willing to place your bet?

One Way Or Another. . .

. . . I vow to get to the bottom of this story.

In March, when The Daily Caller reported that the Republican National Committee (RNC) had spent $1,946 at Voyeur West Hollywood, a bondage-themed nightclub, RNC spokesman Doug Heye vowed on national television that the RNC would get its money back.

“The RNC has not only requested that that money that was sent out as a reimbursement be repaid by the member, but we’ve got the commitment that will be done,” Heye said on Fox News.

But, months later, there’s no evidence in Federal Election Commission filings that that has happened.

I'll need a ticket to L.A., a place to stay and lots of disposable income to see how deep this scandal goes.

Does Newsweek Really Have The GOP's Best Interests At Heart?

Short answer, no. Do Not Run The Grumpy Old Guy.

This should be a no brainer. Whoever Newsweek examines, don't vote for the guy. Nothing against Haley Barbour but the last time two times the GOP ran a grumpy old man to be president-- Bob Dole and John McCain-- they lost.

One more time. Do Not Run The Grumpy Old Guy. He can cure cancer but the Left Wing Media will portray him as the Grumpy Old Guy.

UPDATE: Smitty links up from The Other McCain.

Is This Really A Shock?

Eight years of the RNC sowing 'Compassionate Conservatism'* now being reaped.

The latest example is the special election in the 23rd district of New York. The RNC 'wisely' decided to invest over a million dollars into a candidate that was approved by Kos himself (Of the controversial left wing blog, The Daily Kos). Then Dede Scozzafava tanked in the polls and quit the weekend before the election and endorsed the Democrat, Owens. Heck of a job there, Newt.

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

The largest GOP party committee has $8.7 million in the bank heading into an election year with 37 governors’ races, a dozen major Senate contests, dozens more in the House and an all-important redistricting cycle on the horizon.

Said one RNC official: “It is very troubling, and the thing is, most people don’t understand this. But it is really troubling.”
[. . .]
While the RNC continues to spend heavily on consultants and outside help — about half of the $90 million it spent between January and November — the DNC has moved much of its operation indoors.

The RNC has spent about twice as much as the DNC on consultants this cycle, according to a review of Federal Election Commission (FEC) data.

David Frum's dream of a big tent is coming back to bite the GOP in the ass. In spades. His vision was to spur the true believers** on the right side of the spectrum in order to woe the moderates in the middle. Not really a winning plan because moderates by definition do not have many strong feelings about the issues of the day. And when campaigns live and die by the amount of money raised, the assumption that the true believers will still donate to the cause is damn insulting. The coffers drying up is cause and effect.

*The problem with 'Compassionate Conservatism' is that the social side always outweighs the fiscal side. Same can be said of 'Blue Dog Democrats'.

**True Believer being someone willing to stand up for their ideals with their voice and their wallet.

Thanks to Lisa for the find.

It's About Time.

Finally someone is talking about how the Republican Party can win again after their humiliating losing streak. And he's not a liberal saying that the Republicans are not moderate enough, they need to get extreme in their moderation. This is the man who needs to be the next RNC Chairman.

Ronald Reagan spoke to our deepest longing as a people. He gave a voice to principles that are true for all people in all times. Retool our message, but base it on those proven conservative principles for which our party has always stood: Our freedom is from God, not government. Our prosperity comes from a free people in a free market, not overtaxing, free-spending bureaucrats. We celebrate and protect life, born and unborn. And our best hope for a brighter future is in the empowerment of individuals and families, not in the constraints imposed by a bloated bureaucracy.

Why The GOP Lost.*

With a mentality like this, it's easy to see.

*I'm sure this won't be the last posting with this title.

How Rove Helped Destroy the GOP.

From the McCain I do like.

To Hell With Karl Rove.

If you've met Karl Rove -- as I did earlier this year at George Washington University -- you know what an impressive person he is. The guy has an authoritative manner, and can talk politics very fluently, citing all sorts of historical and demographic facts to bolster his case.

Yet that does not, and certainly ought not, empower Rove to dictate policy to conservatives. In fact, this blurring of politics and policy in the Bush administration (for which Rove was significantly responsible) is one of the major causes of Republican "brand damage."

There's more.

Work to be done.

Victor Davis Hanson.

It seems to me that conservatives have a golden opportunity to offer criticism and advice in a manner that many liberals did not during the last eight years.